The Old Frontiersman Lost His Horse
边塞老人丢了马，邻人来安慰；老人说未必是祸。马带回骏马，人贺；老人说未必是福。儿子骑马摔伤，人吊；老人说未必是祸。后来征兵，跛脚儿子免役得以保全。祸福相依，难以预先断定。
A frontier elder loses a horse; neighbors console him—he says it may not be misfortune. The horse returns with fine steeds—he says it may not be fortune. His son breaks a leg riding—neighbors pity him—he says it may not be misfortune. Later, when conscription comes, the injured son is spared. Blessing and disaster intertwine.
不要过早给事件贴上绝对好坏的标签；保持弹性观察。
Do not label events too early; keep flexible judgment.
After the moral, ask one question: if a similar choice showed up today, where does the story snag? Name that tension first—then take your own step. You need not copy the ancients, only borrow their clarity.